The long and irreversible decline in cheap oil supply.

Predicting peak oil

Using the Hubbert curve to predict peak oil
There are several ways to predict the peak in global oil production. The model with the track record is the method used by petrol geologist  M King Hubbert. He saw that the facts of geology and the realities of physical pumping from underground meant that oil fields typically yield an increasing volume of oil, the volume then stops increasing (production hits a peak), then the volume that can be pumped out of the ground gradually decreases again. Put on a graph, production from an oil field makes a bell curve - starting low, slowly climbing, peaking, slowly descending, finishing low. The high point on the curve is when half of the original reserves (that are reasonably easily able to be pumped out of the ground) in national or global oilfield resources are gone (used up).

The point when half the original reserves are used up is the peak of the life of the resource, and it is irreversibly downhill from that point. New fields brought into production after peak oil are by definition small, and cannot make up for the huge amount of reserves already used up over the years.

Knowing the 'shape' of the production curve for oil fields meant Hubbert could take the figures on the known size of the oil reserves, how much oil had been pumped out of all the USA oil fields already,  how much that still remained was recoverable, and fit these figures into a single 'all USA oilfields' production curve representing the life and death of the totality of oil fields in USA. The result he got showed that oil production in USA would increase in volume every year until 1970. It would then be at the peak of production, and decline thereafter. He made this prediction in 1956. And he turned out to be right. In a revised  1968 paper, he also estimated global peak of conventional (easily extracted 'cheap' oil) would likely be about the year 2000 - within about 5 years of 2005, a year many estimate most likely to have been the peak. This is astonishingly close for an estimate made 37 years ago, and demonstrates again the simple robustness of the approach.

Using the same method for all the world fields in the oil should be easy. But while details of the size of the USA reserves and how much had already been pumped out were readily available to Hubbert, this is not the case for many of the major oil fields in the world. Details of the size of the reserves and how much has been produced to date is regarded as a state secret by Saudi Arabia, for example. Estimates of the reserves in the huge Saudi fields must be drawn from historical data going back to before 1979, when US oil companies worked on those fields. Estimates of the amount drawn off from Saudi fields must comes from a variety of sources, including the number of tankers leaving Saudi terminals, and the amount of oil those tankers can carry.

Saudi Arabia is particularly important. It has the world's largest oil field, and is the single highest producer of oil in the world. The Hubbert method applied to Saudi Arabia implies that it's fields orginally contained a total of about 180 Giga barrels, and there are roughly 70 Gigabarrels left. The implication is that the Saudi reserves have passed the mid point, and will soon decline. In Hubbert's day, prior to aggressive pressurisation of fields with water or natural gas, decline would be gradual. Artificially re-pressurising oil fields masks the gradual drop in pressure and gradual decline of the field. As a result of these techniques, decline rates in the largest Saudi fields have been held to 2% overall. It seems more likely than not that the decline slope in the pressurised massive Saudi fields will not follow the Hubbert decline curve - the decline may well be steep, not gradual. Time will tell.

In any event, the decline rate for the global stock of conventional oil fields appears to be around 3-5% a year, with Saudi fields said to display a 'natural' decline rate of about 6%. Some pressurised mature megafields and very large fields with geology that allows easy production of oil have, in aggregate, a decline rate of maybe10%, with Canterell, in particular, being even higher.

These uncertainties mean that predicting peak oil, even by the proven Hubbert curve method, can only be approximate. But the volume of oil that the world burns every day is so massive that the error in oil reserve and production estimates for some fields make very little difference to the thrust of the result. As a rule of thumb, the 'more likely' predictions could be wrong by two or three years either way. (Best analysts save the range for 90% certainty is 5 years - earlier or later - for Hubbard-based prediction.)

Using the Hubbert curve, peak conventional oil is estimated by most astute investigators to have been somewhere around 2005.

This peak is for 'conventional' oil.

Liquid hydrocarbons ('condensate' and 'gas liquids') are produced from gas wells along with the gas stream. The production profile for gas wells is inherently much harder to predict than oil, and doesn't lend itself to Hubberts method particularly well. In spite of that, if the 'oil equivalent' value (in energy terms) of these liquids is added in (and taking political considerations into account), peak oil ('conventional' plus 'gas liquids') is 2010 to 2015 (depending on the model used and its assumptions). What is also often overlooked is that the chemical nature of 'gas liquids' is such that they must be blended with conventional oil to make them usable. They are not 'sufficient unto themselves' as a ready source of gasoline.

Other influences on the 'shape' of the plateau at the top of the peak and, to a much lesser extent, the 'shape' of the downside, are:

1. Political factors which might delay or speed up the production of that countries reserves. For example, one of the most important oil producers in the world is Nigeria, where, in early 2006, nearly a quarter of a million barrels a day of oil production was blocked by rebels.
2. Poorly explored oil and gas provinces. Iraq, for example, is relatively poorly characterised.
3. Recession as oil prices increase will drive down consumption.

But given our absolute dependence on oil - there is no scalable, cost efficient, high energy per unit volume substitute - these factors alter the picture by only a year or two at best.

World Oil (regular plus other liquids, excluding ethanol & biodiesel) Consumption
2000 - 79 million barrels a day
2005 - ~ 85 million barrels a day
2006 - ~ 82 million barrels a day

Models
These make various assumptions about demand and about increases in demand. Best estimates also have to be made for true recoverable reserves in various oil fields, and what the extraction rate has been, and now is. Errors in estimates for small oilfields are unimportant. Errors for mega-oilfields are crucially important. The ASPO model seems most balanced. (ASPO'S 2007 projections now see a slight increase - around 87 million barrels of oil a day - being produced by 2010.)

ASPO 2007
Conventional oil peaks in 2005, conventional oil plus gas liquids decline by several million barrels a day until 2010.
Deepwater projects finally come on stream in spectacular fashion adding 8.4 mbpd by 2010.
Tar sands and oil shale production increases by 1.2  million barrels a day to 2010.
World oil plus other liquids is 87 mbpd by 2010
From 2010 onward production of conventional oil plus all other liquids declines in Russia, Europe, USA and other world producers outside the Middle East. By 2015 it is 80 million barrels a day

Estimated production profiles for conventional, i.e. 'cheap' oil (liquids and unconventional oil excluded)

2006
Middle East Gulf    20 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 estimate).
Russia                      9.2 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 estimate).
USA (lower 48)       3.6 million barrels day (ASPO end 2005 estimate).
China                       3.15 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
Mexico                    3.04 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
Norway                   2.62 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
Nigeria                    2.34 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).

These 7 major oil producers deliver about 43 million barrels of 'cheap' crude oil a day. Around half the oil that the world burns up every day comes from these 7 high volume producers alone.

2010 - conventional oil
Middle East Gulf  20 million barrels day (ASPO 2007 projection).
Russia                   9.5 million barrels day (ASPO 2007 projection).
USA (lower 48)      3 million barrels day (ASPO 20057 projection).
China                      2.57 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
Mexico                   2.37 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
Nigeria                    2.14 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
Norway                  1.82 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).

These 7 major oil producers deliver around 41 million barrels of 'cheap' crude oil a day. Around half the oil that the world burns up every day comes from these 7 high volume producers alone.

2020
Middle East Gulf   20 million barrels day - (ASPO 2007 projection).
Russia                     6.1 million barrels day (ASPO 2007 projection).
China                       1.72 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
Nigeria                    1.51 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
Mexico                    1.48 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).
USA (lower 48)       1.8 million barrels day (ASPO 2007 projection).
Norway                   0.87 million barrels day (ASPO 2004 projection).

These 7 major oil producers deliver over 33 million barrels of 'cheap' crude oil a day. Around half the oil that the world burns up every day comes from these 7 high volume producers alone.

More oil fields will be found
If more fields continue to be found, then we will not yet have reached the peak of global production.

The world has been thoroughly explored for oil. Yes, more fields will be found. The question is, how much more oil will be added to the global reserve? The best answer appears to be "about 4% of the total volume of global reserves have not yet been found".

To stop the decline in global oil production for the next five years past the peak, 5 very large oilfields producing a minimum of 1 million barrels a day each need to be found. As the global decline rate continues, yet more very large oilfields need to be found. The idea that there is a constant number of very large oilfields just waiting to be found to replace year on year declines of millions of barrels of oil a day is simply fantasy.

More regular oil will be found, including small overlooked plays in existing fields. The quantity is trivial relative to the rate of global decline and rate of global consumption.

Some Producing Oil Fields by size
Currently there are 116 oil fields that produce more than 100,000 barrels of oil per day. These 116 fields produce almost half  the world's oil. Note that all 'reserves' in place are not fully recoverable, unless stated as 'recoverable reserves'. Note also that 'billion' is the 'short scale' (or USA) 'billion', i.e. 1,000 million. One gigabarrel is a 'billion' barrels (1,000,000,000 barrels).

Mega oilfields
Middle East - Saudi Arabia - Ghawar mega field - North and South Ghawar together (briefly - at the cost of damage to the field) produced nearly 5.7 million barrels a day at peak.

The highly permeable carbonates of North Ghawar Ain Dar, Shedgum, and Uthmaniyah reserves are very productive, producing ~ 3.5 million barrels a day - but these huge volume northeast areas of Ghawar peaked in 1979 at 4.2 million barrels a day, and may be seriously depleted now, maybe as much as 85% of recoverable reserves gone. Water flooding within the formation may now be near complete. Ain Dar and Shedgum are believed to have quite high depletion rates of remaining reserves of about 5.5% a year

Ultimate recoverable reserves from the field as a whole are supposedly 115 billion barrels (US billion, i.e.1,000,000,000) according to the EEIA (whose predictions have sometimes been spectacularly wrong). Simmons, based on data from 400 wells characterised by US Aramco operators in the 70's, says that ultimately recoverable reserves are closer to 70 billion barrels (70 Gigabarrels). 55 billion have already produced as at 2003, USA government estimates for 2006 say 60 Gigabarrels have been produced (but estimate an unlikely 130 gigabarrels of reserves).

In any event, experience so far is that the extreme best recovery from carbonate reserves of this type is 45%,  yet the Saudis claim they will extract 75% of the original oil reserves in place, which they claim to be 180 gigabarrels.

34^o API Arabian Light crude oil type -  discovered 1948 - commenced 1951 - peaked 1981 (at 5,694,000 barrels a day). - Aramco (State)

Ghawar total post 1996 - 5,772,000 barrels a day (2005 IEA report, but includes Hawiyah, and Haradh III - not yet producing -  in the south as part of Ghawar, and may also include an unstated portion of condensate and natural gas liquids). Post 1996 peak - with the new Haradh III field included, but without liquids, have commentators estimating 'All-of-Ghawar revamped' will peak in 2010. North Ghawar marked volume decline (perhaps 8% year on year) may be already under way from late 2006.

South Ghawar - Hawiyah and Haradh - commenced production 1996. Haradh is a geologically complex area, with faults and fractured zones. The last stages of the Haradh project use extremely advanced drilling and field management techniques. Haradh phase I commenced may 1996. Average per-well flow rate is 3,000 barrels a day.  Haradh phase II commenced 2003. Average per-well flow rate is 6,000 barrels a day.  Haradh phase III commenced 2006. Average per-well flow rate is 10,000 barrels a day. These wells (phase I, II, and III) will supposedly produce at the rate of 300,000 barrels a day for the next 3 decades from a highly water pressurised field. The Khurais project due 2009 will provide additional capacity for seawater pressurising both South Ghawar via expansion of the Qurayyah seawater treatment and injection system serving both fields.

 Haradh-III technically, part of South Ghawar - 306,000 barrels a day in december 2006 - production commenced february 2006 at 114,000 barrels a day - Arabian light crude - requires very large water injection rates (500,000 barrels a day) to achieve current rates (about 4% water cut at this stage). Requires additional gas-oil separation plants to achieve production, but Saudis are now aggressively pursuing the project - 900,000 barrels a day (all liquids) are hoped for eventually. Only one 300,000 barrel a day gas/oil separation plant is currently (2007) operating.
The Haradh Gas Plant, fed by 87 gas wells, will eventually produce 170,000 barrel a day of condensate to for the Abqaiq processing facility as well as 1.5 billion cubic feet a day of natural gas.

Notes - Ghawar, and north Ghawar in particular, is immensely important to the world due to its astonishingly high daily volume production. Some estimates are that Ghawar is responsible for over 60% of Saudi daily production, but contains only around 30% of total Saudi oil reserves (all types). In addition, Ghawar is the main producer of Saudi light crude. Collapse of Ghawar would increase the light-heavy price spread in world oil prices. Saudi Aramco presentation in 2004 suggests 48% depletion, presumably of North and South Ghawar taken together. The greatest proportion of this depletion is likely to be North Ghawar.

This field, or the most productive part of it, north Ghawar, is flagged for the possibility of catastrophic decline within several years due to the aggressive extraction methods (around 7 million barrels of seawater a day are pumped into this vast field, with injection starting in 1965, and a further 2.5 million barrels a day are earmarked for north Ghawar's Ain Dar/Shedgum fields from the Qurayyah Seawater Treatment Plant mega project).

The area of highest production by far has been in the ultra permeable carbonates of North Ghawar, producing at the rate of around 4.5 million barrels a day, but containing only 20% of total (albeit massive) reserves in the Ghawar complex.

The rest of the  huge Ghawar field produces naturally at only about 300,000 barrels a day, according to Simmons. Haradh, in south Ghawar, for example, currently needs 500,000 barrels of water a day of injected into it to maintain a flow rate of 300,000 barrels of oil a day!

At 2006, the 'water cut' for Ghawar as a whole is estimated at at least 35%, maybe more (officially it is 32%). The 'natural decline rate of Ghawar is around 8% year on year - but is now held up by serious re-pressurising. To sustain the same production rate as present, the less free-flowing middle and southern part of Ghawar will have to have double the number of drilling rigs in place by the end of 2006, and by 10 years from now, will need 2,000 drilling rigs in place - a number close to the current total of rigs in the world.

South America - Mexico - offshore - Cantarell complex - there are 4 major, well defined production areas; these are Akal, Nohoch, Chac, Kutz and Sihil. (Note that the highly fractured carbonates of Akal are by far the most important in the complex, as Akal has more than 85% of the reserves, is highly concentrated in area of only 10 by 4 kilometers, and is highly productive.) - around 1,900,000 barrels a day (2 million barrels a day in 2005, 1.7 million bpd expected by end of 2006) - 22º API oil (heavy) - first field discovered 1976 - reserves in place 33.7 gigabarrels (PERMEX estimate) - produced so far 11.67 gigabarrels - ultimately able to be recovered maybe around 17 gigabarrels  - production commenced 1979 - peaked early nineties, pressurised, a large number of pressurised wells drilled from 1996 onward, re-peaked in late 90's, repressurised and production increased, now peaked again  - production now declining at an unusually fast about 12% a year. - operator PERMEX

Notes - this field is flagged for the possibility of catastrophic decline within 3 years due to the aggressive extraction methods, including water and nitrogen injection and extensive use of horizontal wells targetting the remaining column. Natural gas had been re-injected into the reservoirs since 1988, and by 1994, almost all wells were re-injecting gas to maintain pressure. Natural pressure of 3,840 psi in the reservoir had dropped to 1,820 psi by 1995, in spite of gas pressurisation. Post 1995, new extraction wells were drilled, along with additional gas injection wells to push up the pressure, and production peaked around 1998 at 1.4 million barrels a day, and then started to decline again. Aggressive compressed nitrogen gas pressurisation commenced in may 2000. As a result, production increased to new levels of around 2 million barrels a day. New production records of 2 million barrels a day were reached in both 2003 and 2004. Production is once more declining, as nitrogen gas pressure is eased back to prevent the remaiming oil cap from being shifted into isolated  'sub-reservoirs' away from the placement of the existing well holes.

The thickness of the oil column between the reservoir water below and the gas cap above it was estimated at 1,478 feet early in 2004. It is now said to have a remaining oil column of about 825 feet overlaying the injected water, but thinning by a dramatic 300 feet a year. In these permeable carbonates, high production could continue right up to the point where there is relatively little of the oil column left. If the water base reaches the horizontal wells, production may fall abruptly and dramatically (unknowable until it happens, but estimated at anything around 20-40% or a year or two). In such a case, the field might 'residually' yield several hundred thousand barrels a day for some years.
Mexican government projection say decline will be in the range 1.4 million to 520,000 barrels a day by 2008. By end of 2007 Cantarell was producing about 1.5 million barrels a day, and production had declined by about 15% on the previous year. The operator expects a 14.1% annual decline over the ensuing years. The operators now plan to move the nitrogen pressurisation gas into the nearby Ku Maloob Zaap complex.

Middle East  - Saudi Arabia - offshore - Safaniya - 1,728,000 barrels a day (IEA 2005 report on 2004 production) ? reserves - 28 API heavy oil - ? commenced - peaked 1981 (1,544,000 barrels a day, but see IEA supposed 2004 production) -  depletion rate of remaining reserves is about 2% a year -World's largest offshore oilfield. The current project to upgrade North Safaniya to increase current production of about 300,000 barrels a day by 150,000 barrels per day to a new level of 450,000 bpd continues. As at 2006 Saudi Aramco gives no completion date.

South America - Venezuela - coastal - Bolivar - contains 14-36 Gigabarrels ultimately recoverable reserves of oil - ? produced

Middle East - Kuwait - Burgan - 1,700,000 barrels a day - proven reserves 15 billion barrels - peaked (current production about 14% less than peak). New wells are planned to try to arrest the declining production rate. The head of Kuwaits oil programme says "God willing, from Burgan the increase will be maybe 200,000 bpd by 2009."

Central Eurasia - Azerbaijan - offshore - ACG Megastructure (Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field) - commenced 1997 with 130,000 barrels a day, phase 1 expansion of the Azeri field started in 2005, phase 2 will increase production to over 800,000 barrels a day in 2007, and phase 3 due for completion in 2010 will see production peak at about 1,000,000 barrels a day  - reserves 5.4 billions barrels - BP and others.

East Eurasia - China - Daqing - around 900,000 barrels a day crude (possibly includes liquids and gas as
'oil-equivalent') - proven reserves revised upward in 2006 by nearly 3 gigabarrels, but it is unclear whether due to better characterisation of existing blocks, or new discoveries - proved remaining recoverable reserves 5.6 Gigabarrels (petroChina 2000) - peaked 1976 at 916,191 barrels crude a day - discovered 1959 - commenced may 1960 - medium oil API 35.7^o - sweet oil - mature field in decline, now with a high water cut of around 86% for most wells in the field. The natural decline rate of 15% has been arrested since the late 1990's by intensive reworking. Numerous technologies have been applied, - 3 D seismic imaging to discover by-passed oil bearing structures and locate hot spots for new wells, new perforation and fracture zones in existing wells, polmer flooding, casing repairs, amongst others. The decline rate has for the moment been held at just over 5%.

USA - Prudhoe Bay - < 400,000 barrels a day - peaked late 80's at about 2,000,000 barrels a day - 29º API gravity, 1% sulphur content - operators BP and ? - notes: at 2006 pressure maintained by injecting water - 60% of flow is now water (some claim 75%), 40% is crude. Natural gas liquids are also produced. The field is fairly concentrated, 50 by 16 kilometers in area, and 100 meters thick. Production is falling at 6% a year. 50,000 barrels of current (2008) production is very heavy viscous oil. 11.5  billion barrels have been produced, and a current programme of aggressive re-working may allow another 1.5 billion to be recovered. Technology is being applied to the extra-heavy reserves in the shallow Ugnu formation in the hope of being able to economically extract up to 8% of its 20 billion barrel reserve.

Central Eurasia - Russia - Samotlor megafield  - Smatlor South (TNKBP concession only) - reserves 44.6 billion barrels oil equivalent in place, up to 47% may be recoverable, and 35% has been recovered to date -TNKBP - the Samatlor field was water flooded earlier than necessary, which may have reduced is albility to ultimately recover as much reserve as it should have.

Central Eurasia - Russia - Samotlor megafield  - Smatlor North (TNKBP concession only) - reserves 8.1 billion barrels oil equivalent in place, up to 25% may be recoverable, and 18% has been recovered to date - peaked, production declining at about 9% pa - TNKBP - the Samatlor field was water flooded earlier than necessary, which may have reduced is albility to ultimately recover as much reserve as it should have.

Very Large oilfields
Middle East - United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi - offshore - Upper Zakum - about 530,000 barrels a day - reserves about 50 billion barrels in place - recoverable about 16 to 20 billion barrels - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company 60%, Exxon Mobil 28%, Japan Oil Development Company Limited 12% - One of the world's largest offshore oil fields, and UAE largest field. Work commenced 2006 to ultimately double production to about 750,000 barrels a day. Currently produced by extensive water injection, low reservoir pressure and porous rock make expansion work technically challenging.

Middle East - Saudi Arabia - Khursaniyah (but includes onshore Abu Hadriya, Harmaliyah, and Fadhili) - 107,000 barrels a day (1982 data) - peaked 1979 at 208,000 barrels a day  - medium oil, 35^o API - Being re-worked to increase production to 500,000 barrels a day (Saudi Petroleum Ministry) by april 2008, now delayed until about july 2008. These old onshore oilfields will require huge investment to re-work and pressurise to achieve these levels, or sustain them for long. The plant associated with the re-worked fields will be capable of processing 1 billion cubic feet a day of associated gas and 80,000 barrels a day of  condensates.

Russia - East Siberia - Vankorskoye - up to 660,00 barrels a day by 2014 - reserves 2.5 billion barrels -  Vankor is in an extreme climate, making production very challenging, but flow rates from some wells have been exceptionally good. Most of the 200 plus wells will be horizontally drilled and many will be equipped to monitor oil flow rates to maximise efficient extraction. Production is due 2008, at a level of about 40,000 barrels a day. Ultimate production is expected to be between about 500,000 and 660,000 barrels a day - RosNeft.

Middle East  - Shaybah - 492,000 barrels a day - (IEA report 2005 on 2004 production) - onshore in the remote 'empty quarter' atop the Saudi/UAE border - 42º gravity Arab Extra Light sweet crude - discovered 1968 - production commenced 1998 - recoverable reserves said to be in the region of 16-18 billion barrels once new technolgies are in place - has a very large natural gas cap of around 25 - 30 trillion feet of gas, which is currently re-injected, as are the natural gas liquids (the field is in an extremely isolated location). Oil is pumped via a 395-mile pipeline to Abqaiq, the closest gathering center, where it is blended with Berri and Abqaiq Arab Light crude. Aramco hopes to ramp up production to 750,000 barrels a day by 2008, with maybe 250,000 more at a "later" date.

Middle East  - Saudi Arabia - Abqaiq - 434,000 barrels a day (IEA 2005 report) - producing since 1946 -  peaked 1973 (1,094,061 barrels a day) - 37^o API Arab Light crude - Blended with offshore Shaybah extra light. Two thirds of  Saudi crude is exported from the Abqaiq processing facility via the Persian Gulf (of enormous strategic importance) - depletion rate of remaining reserves at around 10% a year is high.

Middle East  - Saudi Arabia - offshore - Zuluf - 407,000 barrels a day (IEA 2005 report) - ? reserves - Arab medium oil - ? - discovered 1966 - commenced - peaked 1981 (658,000) - depletion rate of remaining reserves is about 2% a year

West Eurasia - Norway - North Sea - Statfjord - initial reserves 4.6 Gb - discovered 1974 - commenced 1979 -  3. 4 Gb produced as at 2005 -  peaked at 850,204 barrels of crude plus natural gas liquids a day - now down to 470,000 to 480,000 barrels a day  - the largest in the North Sea. - StatoilHydro 44.34%, ExxonMobil 21.37%, ConocoPhillips 15.17%, Shell 8.55% - Notes: clastic reservoirs, seawater flooded to maintain pressure, soon to be pressurised with alternating natural gas and water, and with exotic techniques such as foam injection. The three major platforms are now old and are being extensively renovated, at an estimated cost of around $US3.4 billion. Costs have risen substantially over 2005 estimates. Production from the 3 major platforms is now down to 150,000 to 160,000. The satellite wells connecting to the platforms produce around 320,000 barrels a day. The field is expected to be in terminal depletion around 2019, with the fall-off rate being steep.

South America - Brazil - Deepwater offshore - Roncador 3  - 145,000 barrels a day - ? reserves - ? type oil - ? commenced - ? peak - Roncador 3 (phase 3)  - 180,000 barrels a day additional production. Full capacity production for Roncador is expected in 2008. Further development in 2010 will see further production - Petrobras

Middle East - Saudi Arabia - Haiwiyah natural gas field is expected to produce 310,000 barrels a day of ethane and  natural gas liquids by end 2007. First production started in 2001. Currently it produces about 170,000 barrels a day of condensate.

South America - Columbia - Cusiana/Cupiagua - 300,000 barrels a day (2000)

Central Eurasia - Kazakhstan - Caspian shoreline -Tengiz field - 290,000 barrels per day - originally an exploration of Chevron and ?Petro Khazakstan/China. Recoverable reserves are estimated at between 15 and 26 billion barrels. Production is hoped to be as much as 700,000 barrels per day in the long term.

Middle East - United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi - offshore - Umm Shaif  - about 280,000 barrels a day - API 37.2 - discovered 1958 - 268 oil and gas producing wells, gas injection of 600 million cubic feet of gas a day to increase currently static production by 50,000 barrels a day due to commence about start 2008.

South America - Brazil - Deepwater (1.2 kilometres deep) offshore (120 kilometres) - Marlim Leste - heavy crude - the P53 production platform commences 2008, and will yield 180,000 barrels a day when in full production, plus 6 million cubic metres of natural gas per day. A floating production and storage vessel also commences 2008, and will produce a further 100,000 barrels of crude and 3.5 million cubic feet of gas per day when in full production - discovered 1987 - projected to have 15 production wells and 9 injection wells feeding a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel.

Middle East - United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi - offshore - Lower Zakum - 250,000 barrels a day - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company 60%, BP14.2%, Total 13.1% Japan Oil Development Co 12%. Aims to produce an additional 100,000 barrels a day by 2010 by re-injecting gas obtained from Umm Shaif..

Central Eurasia - Azerbaijan - Caspian offshore - ACG Megastructure - 224,000 barrels a day - reserves 5 - 7 billion barrels - BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and others - commenced 1998, oil piped to Georgia (Baku Supsa pipeline) and via leased space in the Russian Baku-Novorossisk pipeline. A new high-volume pipeline is now complete to cope with expansion (BTC pipeline).  Further development under way.

East Eurasia - Russia -Sakhalin basin area 1 - Chayvo field - commenced 2005 - 250,000 barrels a day (anticip. year end 2006) - reserves 2.3 billion barrels oil - ExxonMobil, Rosneft ONGS - will peak 2007 unless the license area is extended. Also has 17 Tcf of gas.

North America - USA - Thunder Horse - Offshore - deepwater - 250,000 barrels of crude a day capacity and 200 million cubic feet a day of gas, start up is due late in 2008 - BP -  Once producing, this platform will be the worlds largest producing offshore platform. It is fed by 25 subsea wells. The reservoir is over 3 kilometres below the sea floor. The sea floor is a further 1 kilometer below this massive semi-submersible platform.

Africa - Angola - deep water - Kizomba A  (Hungo and Chocalho fields) - commenced 2004 - production capacity of  250,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day - Phase 2 (project Marimba) bringing an additional 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day commences end 2007 - BP

Africa - Angola - deep water - Kizomba B (Kissanje and Dikanza fields) commenced July 2005 - production capacity of  250,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day - BP

Middle East  - Saudi Arabia - offshore - Marjan - 223,000 barrels a day (IEA 2005 report) - ? reserves - Arab medium oil - ? commenced - peaked 1979 (108,000)

Africa - Angola - Deepwater offshore - Plutonio - 220,000 to 240,000 barrels a day - ? reserves - medium, API 32.6 degrees - sweet (sulfur 0.39%) -  production expected late 2007 - BP, Sonangol (Angola State), Sinopec (China State) - Plutonio crude will be blended with Galio, Paladio, Cromio and Cobalto deepwater fields to produce the 'Plutonio blend' .

Africa - Angola - Deepwater offshore - Dalia - commences production dec 2006 - full production is expected mid 2007, at about 240,000 barrels of oil per day - field pressurised with 31 water injectors and 3 gas injectors - discovered 1997.

Middle East  - Saudi Arabia - Berri - 213,000 barrels a day (IEA 2005 report) - ? reserves - 43 API light oil - ? commenced - peaked 1976 (807,557 barrels a day) - blended with offshore Shaybah extra light - depletion of remeaining reserves is almost 6% a year, a fairly high rate of depletion.

Central Eurasia - Kazakhstan - Caspian sea offshore - Karachaganak - 210,000 barrels a day - proven reserves of about  2.4 billion barrels - Developed by a consortium which includes BP, AGIP and others - additional phase due by 2010.

Africa - Nigeria - offshore - Bonga - 200,000 barrels a day - Shell

Africa - Angola - Kizomba C (Mondo, Saxi and Batuque fields) - 200,000 barrels a day  from two 100,000 barrels oil equivalent/day floating processing and storage vessels - BP


Large  fields
Middle East  - Offshore  - Abu Sa'fah - Production commenced 1967 - 189,000 barrels a day (IEA report 2005 on 2004 production) - peaked 1979 - depletion rate low, about1% per annum.

East Eurasia - China - Junggar Basin - Xinjiang - 188,000 barrels a day (petroChina 2000) - heavy oil 36.8^o API - reserves about 1 Gigabarrel - production commenced 1951 - mature fields and in decline, production kept up by water pressurisation. Some oil-bearing geological structures are over 5 kilometers deep, requiring sophisticated techniques to extract. Average water cut in 2000 was about 68%. A large programme of drilling 164 additional horizontal wells in 2007 might hold existing production rates.

Africa - Angola - Deepwater offshore - Girassol cluster (Jasmin, Lirio, Rosa fields) - 180,000 barrels a day in 2002 - reserves 1 billion barrels - 32º API oil - ? commenced - ? peak - Total, Fina, Elf, Sonangol (Angola State)

Middle East - Iran - Ahwaz Bangestan -160,000 barrels a day - in decline, expected fall to 60,000 barrels a day by 2008 -  Gas injection could increase production to 220,000 barrels a day, but gas is heavily used by the 67 million Iranians to spare oil for export. Unlikely to be pressurised just yet.

East Eurasia - Liaohe - China - Liaohe River - commenced 1960's - production 152,414 barrels a day - China's third largest oilfield - peak ? - recoverable reserves in place at 2000 were about 1.2 Gigabarrels  - mostly heavy oil, API 26^o, some very heavy, and some light - China claims a similar amount of 'controlled reserves', which might (or might not) refer to reserves that might become economically available with the application of further enhanced recovery techniques. Mature oilfield, in decline. Natural decline rates probably plus 10%. Decline rates have been held back by enhanced recovery techniques, mainly steam injection, assisted by chemical and gas injection and high temperature lifting. The watercut in some blocks in 2000 was over 76%. There are 10,000 wells in the field. - PetroChina (Citic group have purchased rights (2007) to the underdeveloped Hainan Yuedong heavy oil block. When developed, this will add 30,000 barrels a day to offset declining production.)

North America - Canada - Hibernia - offshore - production about 150,000 barrels a day - light oil -reserves 610 to 620 million barrels -  owned by ExxonMobil Canada (33.125%), Chevron Canada Resources (26.875%), Petro-Canada (20%), Canada Hibernia Holding Corporation (8.5%), Murphy Oil (6.5%) and Norsk Hydro (5%) - Operating in extreme Arctic conditions, oil is pumped from the massive Hibernia platform to loading stations where it is loaded at sea directly into purpose built reinforced oil tankers. Production from Hibernia is now declining. Hibernia South has some promising reserves (about 230 million barrels), but an oil lease has only recently (2007) been agreed with the Canadian authorities.

East Eurasia - Russia -Sakhalin basin area 2 - offshore- Piltun-Astokhskoye field in the NE, oil and associated gas, and Lunskoye, a gas field with associated condensate and a small oil rim - 70,000 barrels a day from the Molikpaq offshore platform commenced production 1999 -  reserves 1.2  billion barrels oil, 500 Bcm of gas -  - low sulphur Vityaz crude -  Gazprom/Mitsubishi/Mitsui/Shell/Sakhalin Energy - Also has 18 Tcf of gas.
Sakhalin basin phase 2  - 70,000 barrels a day additional hoped for via deployment of the Mitsubishi/Shell/Sakhalin Energy Piltun-Astokhskoye-B platform in 2008

Middle East - United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi - Bab gas field - 130,000 barrels a day - 57.5 API condensate - 0.11 per cent sulphur - commenced 1996 - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company - this is gas field condensate, not crude oil.

South America - Brazil - Deepwater offshore - Marlim Sul - 100,000 barrels a day - ? reserves - ? type oil - ? commenced  - ? peak - Petrobras - Marlim Sul stage 4 completion - 180,000 barrels a day additional production commencing in 2008

South America - Brazil - Deepwater offshore - Espadarte - 100,000 barrels a day - commenced 2007, full production expected by the end of 2008.

South America - Brazil - Golfinho - additional 100,000 barrels a day production expansion, full capacity production expected 2008 - Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), i.e. Petrobras

Middle East - Qatif- 100,000 barrels a day - (IEA report 2005 on 2004 production) - discovered 1945 - peaked 1979 at 208,000 barrels a day - extra light crude - Notes: Difficult field, containing high concentrations of toxic hydrogen sulphide. Qatif extra light is blended with Abu Safah crude to produce medium crude in the Saudi Aramco-1 mega project. The design capacity of the blends from the two fields is 500,000 barrels a day of light blend from blended Qatif, and 300,000 barrels a day at Abu Safah of medium. (This capacity is puzzlingly much higher than productive capacity as at 2004). Qatif has seven oil bearing reservoirs, only 3 in production as at 2005.

Middle East - Iran - Darkhoven - offshore Abadan - 100,000 barrels a day beginning 2008 - reserves 2.5 billion barrels of oil  - 39° API sweet oil  - ENI (Italy), Arvandan Oil and Gas Company, (subsidiary of state owned Iranian National Iranian Oil Company) -first oil produced 2005, when the current second development phase is complete production is now expected to peak at 160,000 barrels a day by late 2008.

Middle East - Iran - Azadegan - onshore - discovered 1999 - commenced 2008 with 20,000 barrels a day, ultimately expected 100,000 - 400,000 barrels a day - reserve estimates vary from 5 to 26 billion barrels of oil, Iran claims 42 billion barrels (likely to be hugely overstated)  - light and heavy crude - originally a joint Inpex Corp.Japan, National Iranian Oil (and subsidary, Petroleum Engineering & Development), Japan pulled out about the end of 2006 under USA pressure.

Middle East - Oman - Yibal - ?onshore - 80,000 barrels a day (2003)  - ? reserves - ? type oil - ? commenced  - peaked 1997 (225,000 barrels a day) - Shell 

Middle East - United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi - Asab gas field - 80,000 barrels a day  - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company - this is gas field condensate, not crude oil.

East Eurasia - China  - Erdous Basin - Changqing oil and gas region - mainly a giant gas field, some crude (or equivalent) is produced. Discovered 1970. Development of the newest blocks commenced 1995. In 2000 it produced 94,5000 barrels of crude a day.

East Eurasia - China - Tarim Basin - 89,000 barrels a day (petroChina, 2000) - heavy oil - proven reserves 466 million barrels - China National Petroleum Corp - It is expensive to produce - some reservoirs are over 5 kilometres deep. It is currently economic at the $US50 per barrel point. The Tarim Basin fields are now being aggressively horizontally drilled to enhance oil production. The huge Kela 2 natural gas field is in this region. It was discovered in 1998.

East Eurasia - China - Jilin - production 76,400 barrels a day (petroChina 2000)

East Eurasia - China - Tuha - production 61,500 barrels a day (petroChina 2000)

East Eurasia - China - Bohai, near Tianjin city - Dagang - discovered 1966 - proven reserves about 5.4 Gigabarrels - gas and oil - natural gas 28.72 billion cubic metres - the field is spread over 18,6000 square kilometres - production 80,500 barrels a day (2000 petroChina) - Old mature field, water cut around 80%, natural decline rate probably around 10%, declines being held back to maybe half that on enhanced water injection and control techniques.

East Eurasia - Shengli - China - Yellow River Delta - commenced 1962 - China's second largest oilfield - peak ? 1993 - in decline, production maintained by field edge drilling and reservoir pressurisation. As at 1993, it produced 20% of China's domestic oil production.

East Eurasia - China - Zhongyuan - discovered 1975 - production about 81,000 barrels a day.


Medium fields and smaller

Middle East - Hazmiyah - 59,000 barrels a day - (IEA report 2005 on 2004 production)

Middle East - Fadhili - 50,000 barrels a day (IEA report 2005 on 2004 production)

Middle East - Munifa - offshore - 50,000 barrels a day - IEA report 2005 on 2004 production - specialist refinery being built to increase production.

Middle East - Ghinah- 41,000 barrels a day - (IEA report 2005 on 2004 production)

North America - USA - Marlin - offshore - deepwater - first production commenced 1999 before having to be shut in due to technical problems. Re-opened, and now producing. Ultimate capacity 40,000 barrels of crude a day and 250 million cubic feet of natural gas. BP .

West Eurasia - North Sea - Brent - offshore - 30,000 barrels a day  - ? reserves - ? type oil - commenced 1976  - peaked early 1980's (500,000 barrels a day) - managed by Dutch interests - Notes: clastic reservoirs, seawater flooded to maintain pressure. Decline rate from 2004 to 2005 was 0.38%.

West Eurasia - Norway - North Sea - Ekofisk - initial reserves ? - commenced 1971 -  2. 4 Gb produced as at 2005 - peaked 1976 at 700,000 barrels a day - Notes: carbonate reservoirs similar to mid East, not seawater flooded to pressurise until mid-life, about 1983. Peak flow prior to water flooding was 80,000 barrels a day. Currently over 800,000 barrels of water a day are injected and water-pressurised flows peaked at over 300,000 barrels a day in 1998. Ekofisk phase II  production commenced in 1998, at the two new 2/4J installations. These include extensive reworking of the infrastructure of the Ekofisk field, partly due to concerns of stablility of structures as the seabed collapsed by 7 metres as the soft chalks overlaying the reservoir are eroded by the injected seawater. (Subsidence continues at about 40 centimetres a year.). The new structures can withstand a further 12 metres of subsidence.

West Eurasia - Norway - North Sea - Gullfaks - initial reserves ? - commenced 1986 -  2 Gb produced as at 2005

West Eurasia - Norway - North Sea - Oseberg - offshore - initial reserves ? - commenced 1986 -  2.1 Gb produced as at 2005, current depletion rate about 12% annually - peaked 1994.

West Eurasia - UK - North Sea - Magnus - 67,000 barrels a day - offshore - initial reserves in place 1.65 Gb - commenced 1984 - ultimate recoverable reserves estimated will be 797 million barrels (48% of reserves in place) - peaked? - production declining, pressure being artificially maintained by pumping in water and also gas.

Oceania - New Zealand - Tui - offshore - 48,000 barrels a day - reserves (proven and probable) 41.7 million barrels - commenced july 2007 - AWE (42.5%), Mitsui (35%), Pan Pacific Petroleum (10%), NZ Oil and Gas (12.5%).

Central Eurasia - Russia - Kharyaga - 30,000 barrels a day - reserves of 0.71 Giga barrels, 420 Mb recoverable - Total, Norsk Hydro, Nenets.

Middle East - Harmaliyah - 28,000 barrels a day - (IEA report 2005 on 2004 production) discovered 1971 - East of Ghawar's Hawiyah and Haradh zones. Produced and then shut down about 3 times. Restarted in 1991, along with Khurais and south Ghawar, then shut down again in1998. Re-opened in about 2000, initially producing 50,000 barrels a day. Currently being worked over to increase production.

Middle East - Hawtah trend (Najd fields)- 26,000 barrels a day - (IEA report 2005 on 2004 production) - 45^o- 50^o API, 0.06 percent sulphur, Arab Super Light - the only reasonable size oil play found in Saudi Arabia since 1967 (see also the satellite Nuayyim and Hazmiyah fields sometime lumped in with Hawtah).

Since 1994, the Hawtah Trend (also called the Najd fields), which includes the Hawtah field and smaller satellites (Nuayyim, Hazmiyah) south of Riyadh, has been producing around 200,000 bbl/d of 45^o-50^o API, 0.06 percent sulphur, Arab Super Light.

South America - Brazil - Deepwater offshore - Camarupim field - commence 2008, ultimate capacity is 25,000 barrels of oil a day and 10 million m³ of gas a day - Petrobras

Middle East - Saudi Arabia - Halfaa-1 - onshore - 6,000 barrels a day  - ? reserves - light oil - commenced 2005

Middle East  - Saudi Arabia - Khurais - west of, and parallel to, Gharwar - initialy 20,000 to 40,000 barrels a day, but production variable and requiring pressurisation over a large area (2,890km²) far from the sea (currently mothballed) -  reserves about 23 billion barrels - Arabian light sweet oil - commenced 1964, unsuccessful gas pressurisation in 1981 to maintain flow, mothballed 1980's due to poor flow requiring high investment to 'rework' and extensively water pressurise -  peak production was 144,000 barrels a day in 1981.
Note: The Saudis hope to drill 400 wells in order to achieve 1.2 million barrels a day of new production, and install additional gas/oil separation, stabilisation, and treatment plants, at a cost of over $3 billion dollars. They plan to aggressively fracture and pressurise the carbonate to achieve this relatively high initial flow rate. Very high rates of water injection (4.5 million barrels of seawater a day) will be required to achieve the target. The hope is to achieve this in 2009. The first phase, starting 2006, will deliver about 150,000 barrels a day via the east-west pipeline.

Central Eurasia - Russia - Urals/Volga basin - Romashkino - discovered 1948 - mature field in decline - ultimately recoverable reserves ~ 16 gigabarrels - produced so far ?

East Eurasia - China - Hebei plateau - Huabei production 92,700 barrels a day in 2000 (petroChina) - discovered 1975. Mature field, in decline. Water cut in the 80% region. Decline rate held back on water pressurisation.

East Eurasia  - China - East Heibei - Jidong - offshore - discovered 1978. Most of the field is mature, and in decline. Water cut typically around 80%. In may 2007 an extremely large oil and gas play of nearly was found in the Nanpu block of the Jidong field. The actual breakdown of the crude versus gas component is not published yet. The gas and oil expressed in 'oil equivalent' terms is said to be about 7.5 Gigabarrels. The new oil find is light oil.

East Eurasia - China  - Kurban-Tonggute desert - Cainan - production about 30,250 barrels a day - commenced production 1991.

East Eurasia - China - Bohai Sea - Suizhong 36-1 - proven reserves 2.2 Gigabarrels. Operations commecnced 1995. ? production.

East Eurasia - China - Bohai Sea - Chengbei - commenced1986, the first Chinese-Japanese joint venture. ? production.

East Eurasia - China - Bohai Sea - Qinhuangdao 32-6 - proven reserves nearly 1.5 gigabarrels - discovered 1995 - ? production.

East Eurasia - China - South China Sea - Liuhua 11-1 - offshore 220 kms - peak production so far 34,277 barrels a day - 'controlled reserves' of 1.7 Gigabarrels of crude - production commenced 1996 - joint venture China Offshore Petroleum Nanhai East and Amoco Oil  - China's most extensive offshore oil field.

East Eurasia - China - South China Sea - Fanyu 4-2  - estimated but unproven reserves of about 149 million barrels - production capacity estimatesd at about 8,200 barrels a day - Yet to produce. developed by USA's Santa Fe Energy Resources Co.



Expected Oil fields by  year
Note 2008: please go to the Wikipedia 'Megafields Project' for the most authoritative and complete data on significant new oil plays and their possible date of production. The projections below will no longer be updated.

?2006 - Central Eurasia - Russia - Pechora Sea polar continental shelf - Prirazlomnoyo - offshore - 155,000 barrels a day expected - peak expected 610,000 barrels in 2010 - proven reserves about 0.61 Giga barrels -Rosneft/Gazprom

2006 - West Eurasia  - UK - North Sea - Buzzard - being developed, this field is expected to come on stream with a production capacity of around 180,000 - 200,000 barrels a day by the end of 2006. However it was found in Q3, there is more hydrogen suphide in the oil than anticipated, and modifications to the platform might be needed. 2007 might be a more likely on-stream date. 2007

2007 - Africa - Angola - Deepwater offshore - Lobito/Tomboco - ? barrels a day - ? reserves - 32º API oil - will commence early 2007 - ? expected peak - Chevron Texaco

2007 - Africa - Angola - Deepwater offshore - Greater Plutonio - 240,000 barrels a day - ? reserves - ? type

2007 - Africa - Angola - Deepwater offshore - Rosa expansion - 250,000 barrels a day

2007 - Malaysia - Deepwater offshore - Kikeh - 120,000 barrels a day - Malaysia and Brunei dispute ownership

2007 - South America - Brazil - Deepwater offshore - Polvo - light oil - - Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), i.e. Petrobras

2008 - Middle East - Shaybah - 250,000 barrels a day of additional production. (And claims for a further 250,000 barrel increment at an unspecified date in the future).

2008 - North America - USA - Atlantis -  Offshore, deepwater (7,000 feet) Gulf of Mexico - 200,000 barrels of crude oil a day and 180 million cubic feet of gas a day at full production, expected 2009, when 18 wells will be in place. 11 wells in place, with flow rates of from 10,000 to 20,000 barrels per day expected. Commenced october 2007, 10,000 barrels a day. Operated by BP, the Atlantis semi-submersible production platform has the distinction of being the semi-submersible most deeply moored in the world.

2008 -  North America - USA - Tahiti - offshore - 125,000 barrels a day - due to commence mid 2008, with full capacity to be reached within 7 months - the reservoirs are under a salt cap, and difficult to seismic image. Some adjacent fields have produced less than expected, others have produced to expectation - Chevron

2008 - 2009 - East Eurasia - China - Offshore - Jindong Nanpu (Bohai Bay) - discovered 2007 - reserves 7.5 billion barrels - 180,000 - 200,000 barrels a day - PetroChina.

2009 - Central Eurasia - Russia - West Salym, Upper Salym and Vadelyp fields - 120,000 barrels per day expected  Salym Petroleum Development NV (50:50 Shell:Sibir Energy) - note Upper Salym has already commenced, Vadelyp is expected in 2006

2009 - Central Eurasia - Russia - West Siberia Uvatskoye project - 60 million tons of oil reserves recoverable - 200,000 barrels a day - TNKBP

2009 - Middle East - Saudi Arabia - Khurais (also adjacent Abu Jifan and Mazalif (Mazalij) fields south west and east of Khurais with an estimated 4 billion barrels of reserves) -1.2 million barrels a day - Khurais is a light sweet oil but will need high water pressurisation. The 'Khurais Crude Increment' is one of the largest industrial projects in the world. It includes facilities to treat and inject 4.5 million barrels of treated seawater a day (with capacity to treat up to 14 mbd). All these fields need extensive re-working, including multiple horizontal wells. Khurais, the largest of the three, has reserves in place that are estimated at 23 billion barrels. Once developed Khurais itself will produce 315 million standard cubic feet per day of sour gas (containing hydrogen sulfide) and 70,000 barrels per day of natural gas liquids.

2009 - Valhall Redevelopment - 150,000 barrels a day

2009 - Urugua - 150,000 barrels a day

2009 - Kizomba D - 125,000 barrels a day

2009 - Frade - 100,000 barrels a day

2010 - South America - Mexico - Offshore - Ku Maloob Zaap complex - 800,000 barrels a day

2010 - South America - Brazil - Deepwater offshore - Roncador 3 (phase 3)  - 260,000 barrels a day additional production

2010 - Iran - Yadavaren (aka Kushk/Hosseinieh) - 300,000 barrels a day - reserves 3 billion barrels - deal not confirmed yet, Sinopec wants 51%, Royal Dutch Shell wants 20%, the technical advisors, are looking for 20%. - large gas resource associated.

2010 - Kazakhstan - Caspian sea offshore - Kashagan  is the largest of Kazakhstan's three large fields (proven reserves of about 7-9 billion barrels), and the largest oilfield outside the Middle East. It was being developed by a consortium which includes BP, ChevronTexaco, Exxon-Mobil, ENI and AGIP and others and first oil was due 2005, but was not produced. Technically difficult to produce (high sulfur dioxide content), high pressure field, isolated. Once developed , the four major Kazak field may collectively produce 5 million barrels a day by about 2010.
In mid 2007, the operators, ENI, notified the Kazak government that first oil, due from Kashagan,  would now not be produced until 2010, pushing full development back to at least 2015. Kashagan is expected to contribute 75,000 barrels a day.

2010 - Kazakhstan - Caspian sea offshore - Karachaganak contains proven reserves of about  2.4 billion barrels, plus large quantities of gas and condensates. It is being further developed by a consortium which includes BP, AGIP and others to raise current production by an additional 390,000 barrels a day.

Central Eurasia - Kazakhstan - Caspian shoreline -Tengiz field  - originally an exploration of Chevron and ?Petro Khazakstan/China. Recoverable reserves are estimated at between 15 and 26 billion barrels (some say less). Production is hoped to be increased by as much as 310,000 barrels per day by 2010.

2010 - Indonesia - Cepu - 180,000 barrels a day - reserves estimated 500 million barrels

2011 - Middle East - Saudi Arabia - Munifa (Manifa) - offshore - Munifa has high sulfur and relatively high vanadium oil awaiting completion of a specialised refinery in Saudi to be built to remove the vanadium. Average of 28 API crude. Sulfur content is just over 3%. Vanadium content below 50 in vac. residual. Production potential uncertain, but in 2006 the Saudi oil minister projected an additional 900,000 barrels per day by mid 2011. A 41 kilometre causeway and artificial islands along the way will be built to carry new pipelines. The seaward arm of the Saudi freshwater aquifer will be tapped to provide 1.35 million barrels a day of aquifer water for pressurisation.

2011 - South America - Brazil - Tupi - ultra deep water offshore - the Tupi field is part of the Santos Basin BM-S-11 block in  waters from 1,500 to 3,000 metres deep. The oil and gas bearing formation is from 3-4 kilometres below the seabed, and is about 800 kilometres long and 200 kilometres wide - intermediate crude, 28 degrees API, and natural gas - early estimates of reserves are 5 to 8 billion barrels of recoverable oil and oil equivalent, although this may ultimately proved to be much too high - 100,000 barrels a day of oil and oil equivalent by 2011 - operated by Petrobas (65%), UK's BLG Group (25%), and Portugals Petroleos de Portugal (10%).

2011 - Africa - Nigeria - deepwater - Usan - expected peak flow 180,000 barrels a day - Chevron 30%, Esso 30%, Elf 20%, Nexen Nigeria 20% - 62 miles offshore

Future
Middle East - Saudi Arabia has about 10% of its proven and 'probable' reserves yet to be developed. Of these, Nuayyim, expected to produce about 100,000 barrels a day, is the most likely to be eventually brought into production.
Middle East - Saudi Arabia claims Shaybah will have a total production of 1 million barrels a day by 2016. Of that, 500,000  barrels a day is existing (2006 production), and 250,000 barrels a day of additonal production from the expansion due 2008, for a total new capacity of 500,000 barrels a day by 2016 relative 2006.
Middle East - Iran has several as yet undeveloped fields of large size - West Qurna, supposedly with capacity of up to 400,000 barrels a day, Rataw with a billion barrel reserve, Masjnoon might give 300,000 barrels a day, Nahr Umar maybe 400,000 barrels a day of light crude. (These estimates were made by Simmons in 2001, and he acknowledges that data is unreliable for many fields.)

Russia - the Trebs-Titov group of oilfields in the Nenets Autonomous Area is believed to have around 230 million. tonnes (1.68 Gba) of oil. It was auctioned for further development about 2005.
Russia - the Val Gamburtseva field in the Nenets Autonomous Region has an estimated 0.6 Giga barrels of proven reserves.
Russia - Verkhnechonskoye - the 'largest' oil and gas field found in East Siberia. Isolated, awaiting the Russian Governments implementation of the Eastern Siberia –Pacific Coast pipeline system. The cost may be 10 billion dollars.The costs of drilling in the harsh Siberian conditions are an enormous barrier to development.
Russia - Yurubcheno-Takhomskaya area of Evenk has 780 million tonnes of oil reserves. It is uncertain how much is recoverable. Isolated, awaiting the Russian Governments implementation of the Eastern Siberia –Pacific Coast pipeline system. The cost may be 10 billion dollars.The costs of drilling in the harsh Siberian conditions are an enormous barrier to development.
Russia - the the Talakan oil field in Sakha-Yakutia has 124 million tonnes of oil reserves (Yukos/Slavneft). It is uncertain how much is recoverable. Isolated, awaiting the Russian Governments implementation of the Eastern Siberia –Pacific Coast pipeline system. The cost may be 10 billion dollars.The costs of drilling in the harsh Siberian conditions are an enormous barrier to development.
Russia - North Caucasus - the Filanovsky field in the north Caspian Sea area has 'probable' reserves of around 600 million barrels of oil, of which about 80 million tons are extractable. Peak production is expected to be 5 million tons a year

Mexico -  the Chicontepec field currently (2006) produces trivial amounts of oil - 26,000 barrels of oil a day. This vast field (3,800 sq km in the states of Veracruz and Puebla) holds 40% of Mexico's oil, and is ear-marked for intensive development. Mexico's Permex oil company wants to be producing 1 million barrels a day by 2014. To achieve this huge jump in production, Mexico will need at least US$38 billion, and will need to drill 20,000 wells. Reserves are said to be 18 billion barrels of crude.

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